I am calling for a $20 trillion peak in total crypto market capitalization in the 2026 to 2027 cycle, with a credible path to an overshoot toward $25 trillion if the cycle reaches full momentum.

I have spent nearly a decade building at the intersection of capital markets and emerging infrastructure. I started Deal Box in 2016 and leaned early into real-world asset tokenization because the direction of travel was clear long before it became popular. My framework has stayed consistent: markets migrate toward rails that make capital easier to access, cheaper to move, and simpler to settle.

In financial technology, the fundamentals that win keep repeating: open access, longer trading windows, programmable settlement, reduced clearing costs, compliance-ready rails, and user sovereignty. User sovereignty is the part most people feel before they can describe it. It is the ability for an individual or a business to control and move their own assets directly, with fewer points of permission and fewer single points of failure.

Why $20 trillion fits the global allocation math

People treat $20 trillion as a shocking number because they compare it to crypto’s past, not to the size of global markets. PwC projects global investable wealth rising from roughly $345 trillion in 2024 toward about $482 trillion by the end of the decade. On that path, the investable base sits in the high $300 trillion range by 2026.

Here is the simple math that makes the $20 trillion call realistic. Five percent of a ~$385 trillion investable pool is about $19 trillion. That isn’t a pie in the sky prediction that crypto becomes everything, it just needs to become a repeatable allocation across portfolios, the way gold, emerging markets, and private credit became repeatable allocations.

If traditional markets begin issuing even ten percent of their investable assets in tokenized form over the next cycle, the dollar value represented on-chain is measured in tens of trillions. I’m not saying that everything becomes a token overnight. I’m saying that the addressable pool is already large enough that a $20 trillion crypto peak fits inside ordinary asset allocation behavior.

That level does not require crypto to “replace traditional finance”. It requires crypto to become part of how traditional finance operates: a settlement layer, a liquidity layer, and an allocation sleeve that institutions can hold through familiar wrappers.

What changed in 2025 and what it unlocks for 2026

2025 removed structural hesitation. The GENIUS Act established a federal framework for payment stablecoins, giving banks, issuers, and payment firms clarity around participation. With stablecoins exceeding $300 billion in market value, on-chain markets now operate with a durable cash layer that supports trading, settlement, and tokenized assets.

At the same time, the SEC streamlined spot crypto ETP listings, ETFs expanded into brokerage and retirement systems, and institutional distribution shifted from access to allocation.

CoinShares reported roughly $47 billion in net inflows into digital asset investment products during the year, signaling structured, repeatable capital entering through regulated vehicles.

Tokenization enters regulated market plumbing and corporate balance sheets

By late 2025, tokenization started becoming part of how core markets think about settlement. The loud signal they send: regulators and infrastructure providers are preparing for tokenized assets to exist alongside traditional securities.

Tokenized Treasuries reaching roughly $10 billion on public chains show that conservative capital is willing to move on-chain when the structure feels familiar.

By October 2025, 142 public companies held roughly $137 billion in crypto, according to CoinGecko. These Digital Asset Treasury Companies (“DATCOS”) treat crypto as a balance sheet asset alongside cash, Treasuries, or gold. It feels like an inevitability that this play will be run more and more as shareholders get exposure to this new institutional asset class.

Bitcoin remains the anchor, and programmability is catching up

Bitcoin still represents the strongest version of crypto’s core promise: security and credibility over time. The next phase extends that foundation into more usable financial infrastructure. That is where long-game builders come into focus. OroBit is an example of a team working to unlock programmability around Bitcoin while keeping Bitcoin’s security model at the center. OroBit describes its approach as Bitcoin-native programmable finance built around a Simple Contract Language, designed to support tokenization and programmable asset logic while anchoring trust to Bitcoin and integrating Lightning for settlement.

Where the inflows come from in a $20T cycle

I see three inflow engines that can lift the market into the $20 trillion range over a full cycle.

First, regulated ETFs and ETPs make crypto a standard portfolio allocation by placing it inside familiar investment channels.

Second, corporate balance sheets drive steady accumulation through visible, repeatable treasury decisions, such as DATCOS.

Third, on-chain liquidity increases velocity as stablecoins function as digital cash and tokenized Treasuries provide yield, allowing capital to move efficiently between safety and risk.

User sovereignty ties these engines together. When individuals and institutions can control assets directly and move them at any hour on compliant rails, participation expands.

My assumptions are straightforward: Regulatory momentum continues. Distribution channels expand. Corporate treasury adoption remains visible. Stablecoin liquidity stays large and usable. Under those conditions, a $20 trillion peak in the 2026 to 2027 cycle becomes achievable, with a $25 trillion overshoot plausible during a full momentum phase.

The winners in technology cycles are the ones who hold the fundamentals long enough for infrastructure to catch up with the idea. Crypto’s fundamentals are now showing up in law, in market structure, in bank participation, in tokenized cash, and in balance-sheet adoption. That is why I believe the next cycle reaches a scale many still underestimate.

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